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Throughout the race for the White House in 2016, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the sole European Union leader to support Donald Trump. This alignment came as no shock, in light of the Hungarian leader's adoption of contentious theories including the "great replacement" theory and his suppression of journalistic liberties. Commentators point out that Hungary's premier more or less wrote the playbook for Trump's base, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Political Favors Before Hungary's Polls

Last week, amid pivotal polls in Hungary only approaching in six months, Donald Trump reciprocated with support. As Mr Orbán pursues a fifth consecutive term presiding over a nation he describes as an illiberal democracy, his ruling party is behind in surveys. A visit to the US capital yielded beyond a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured highly beneficial electoral advantages.

Special Treatment and Fiscal Safeguards

Although previously lecturing European nations on the necessity to stop all resource supplies from the Russian Federation, and warning of sanctions against states still to import Russian energy, Donald Trump approved to allow a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also agreed to extend a fiscal buffer to the Hungarian authorities should it runs into any upcoming challenges, particularly since Brussels continues to withhold substantial EU funds to the nation because of rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this arrangement seem vague. But the US president recently demonstrated his inclination to help out ideological allies after the US extended a a $20 billion loan to Javier Milei, Argentina's president. Although Orbán was unable to arrange a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting still turned out to be a successful endeavor.

Brussels' Worries and International Implications

Among European leaders, Trump's actions likely further underlined the strategic importance of the forthcoming polls, before which the opposition candidate, Péter Magyar, has a clear edge in surveys. EU chiefs have learned not to anticipate principled consistency from the US government, and are familiar with the Trump's efforts to belittle the EU. But the special treatment for Orbán – secured through an deal to acquire American energy resources – blatantly weakens the bloc's aims to phase out imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian oil, these two countries, have provided substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has consistently deployed the blocking vote to impede moves in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• As the EU attempts to develop a cohesive plan for backing Ukraine, and bolstering its position in any future peace negotiations, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has steered clear of vowing a drastic turnaround on the war in Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while emphasizing the necessity for the country to begin operating as a constructive EU member. After enduring repeated disruptions, Brussels can only wait and hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to core EU ideals, including the support for minority protections and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has persisted as a source of shame for the bloc. His persistent opposition regarding the Ukraine issue risks undermining its security prospects.