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While world leaders gather in Brazil for Cop30, it is essential to review how we are faring together in reducing worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

Despite 30 years of UN climate summits, nearly 50% of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted after the year 1990. Incidentally, 1990 marked the publication of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which confirmed the threat of anthropogenic climate change. As scientists prepare the upcoming IPCC report, they do so knowing that their work remains eclipsed by political agendas. Despite well-intentioned efforts, the world is remains dangerously off track to prevent dangerous global warming.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Recent data show that CO₂ concentrations hit a new peak of 423.9 ppm in 2024, with the increase rate from the previous year surging by the biggest annual rise since modern measurements began in 1957. Based on the international carbon monitoring initiative, ninety percent of worldwide carbon dioxide output in 2024 came from burning fossil fuels, while the remaining 10% resulted from alterations in land use such as deforestation and forest fires.

While the increase in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was propelled by increased use of gas and oil—representing over half of global emissions—the use of coal also attained a historic peak, constituting forty-one percent. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to transition away from carbon fuels, collective plans still intend to extract over twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than aligns with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, with ongoing drilling of gas rationalized as a less polluting transition fuel.

The Mirage of Eco-Friendly Measures

Instead of focusing on economic incentives to speed up the elimination of fossil fuels, environmental strategies are heavily reliant on feel-good nature positive approaches that seek to neutralize CO2 output by planting trees instead of reducing industrial emissions. Although protecting, expanding, and rehabilitating ecological absorbers like woodlands and marshes is beneficial in itself, research has demonstrated that there is not enough land to reach the worldwide target of net zero emissions using ecological methods by themselves.

Approximately 1 billion hectares—a territory larger than the USA—is needed to fulfill carbon neutrality commitments. Over 40% of this area would need to be converted from existing uses like food production to carbon sequestration projects by 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Although this ideal restoration could be achieved, forests require years to grow and can burn down, so they cannot be considered as a fast or lasting carbon storage solution, especially in a rapidly shifting environment. As extreme heat and aridity engulf larger regions, these well-intentioned efforts could actually go up in smoke.

The Diminishing of Natural Carbon Sinks

Research data indicates that about half of the total CO₂ emitted annually remains in the atmosphere, while the rest is taken up by oceans and land ecosystems. With global heating, these natural carbon sinks are losing efficiency at capturing CO₂, meaning that additional CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, further exacerbating climate change. Transferring the reduction responsibility onto the land sector simply relieves the fossil fuel industry from the pressure to cut pollution any time soon.

The Climate Liability and Coming Populations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century demands CO2 extraction (CDR), which currently relies almost exclusively on land-based measures to absorb surplus CO2 from the air. Emitting companies can simply buy carbon credits to counterbalance their emissions and continue with normal operations. At the same time, the energy imbalance caused by the burning of fossil fuels continues to further disrupt the global climate system. Essentially, we are increasing our climate liability to our planetary credit card, passing on our descendants with an unpayable liability.

To limit the magnitude and duration of exceeding the global warming targets, the planet eventually needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of net zero and start to drawdown cumulative historical emissions to reach a carbon-negative state.

The Political Distortion of Net Zero

According to the most recent data from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is presently absorbing the equal of about 5% of annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions, while engineered carbon extraction accounts for only about one-millionth of the carbon released from carbon sources. More generous industry estimates suggest around 0.1% of total global emissions. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the political distortion of net zero is an insidious loophole that takes focus away from the research-based necessity to eradicate the main source of our overheating planet—fossil fuels.

The Critical Requirement for Concrete Action

While this research-backed truth should lead talks at the climate summit, history indicates that gradual, cautious steps and deference to politics will win out. Ambiguous promises of future ambition will keep on delay the pressing requirement for concrete immediate action. Unless policymakers have the courage to implement carbon pricing to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are adding increasing amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, worsening the environmental disaster now unfolding across the globe.

The dilemma we face is simple: genuinely respond to the scientific reality of our predicament or suffer the consequences of this deep ethical lapse for centuries to come.