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An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was officially announced, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation.

Changing Odds in Predictions

Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the month's conclusion increased in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on Saturday that Maduro had been seized.

One account, which registered on the site recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436K from a starting bet of $32,537.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.

Market Signals Before Announcement

Platform data shows that traders put the odds of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.

But the market's assessment had jumped to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the first hours of Saturday, indicating a sharp shift in betting activity just before the official statement was made.

"That trade has all the signs of a bet based on inside information," said an industry expert.

A handful of other platform users also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome.

Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies

Some lawmakers are growing concerned.

A new rule presented on Monday seeks to ban federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market.

Market Background

Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with participants able to predict everything from sports to current affairs.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency.

Insider trading is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting space.

A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."